Pair #38

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2898

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA-26

Will Joao Fonseca win a major in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4124

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:19Z

Reasoning: The French Open is one of the four Grand Slam majors. If Fonseca wins the French Open, he necessarily wins a major in 2026. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -37.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:26:50Z

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