Pair #3795

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-WZAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Will Zalatoris make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 277

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:23Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to making the cut at the Houston Open, a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -60.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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