Pair #379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-SJ

Will San Jose Sharks win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15082

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the San Jose Sharks win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-SJ

Will the San Jose Sharks be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 295318

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the San Jose Sharks are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Pacific Division guarantees a playoff spot. However, making the playoffs does NOT require winning the division — teams can qualify as wild cards. So KXNHLPACIFIC-26-SJ → KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-SJ, but not the reverse.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:36:40Z

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