Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-RFOX
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Fox make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 564
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryan Fox has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RFOX
Will Ryan Fox lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12730
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryan Fox is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:02Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can lead R1 and still miss the cut. And making the cut does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A