Pair #378

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-SJ

Will San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 565773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-SJ

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 92376

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If San Jose Sharks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:08Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, San Jose must have won the Western Conference Finals first. Winning the Cup necessarily implies winning the Western Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:45:18Z

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