Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-SJ
Will San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 565773
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-26-SJ
Western Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 92376
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Jose Sharks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:08Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, San Jose must have won the Western Conference Finals first. Winning the Cup necessarily implies winning the Western Conference Finals.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.40%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.62%
BELOW HURDLE