Pair #3778

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 789

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3269

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:02Z

Reasoning: Event A is about Round 1 standings only; Event B is about the overall tournament finish. A player can be top 10 after Round 1 and not finish top 5 overall, and vice versa. These are independent events across different scopes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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