Pair #3775

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25752

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 789

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:43Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which means he is in the top 10. So leading Round 1 implies finishing top 10 in Round 1. However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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