Pair #3774

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 789

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 254538

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:43Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament typically requires making the cut, and making the cut is strongly associated with a solid Round 1. However, strictly speaking, winning does not logically necessitate a top 10 Round 1 finish — a player could shoot a mediocre first round and still win. This is not a logical necessity, so confidence is low-to-none. Actually, there is no strict logical requirement: a winner could have finished outside the top 10 in Round 1 score. Setting to none.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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