Pair #3773

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 789

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:43Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Houston Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -22.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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