Pair #3771

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-HHAL

Will Harry Hall lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 233

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-HHAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Harry Hall finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2257

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:43Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player could collapse in rounds 3 and 4. And finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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