Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-SJ
Will San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 565773
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the San Jose Sharks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPACIFIC-26-SJ
Will San Jose Sharks win the NHL Pacific Division?
Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15082
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the San Jose Sharks win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:08Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Pacific Division — San Jose could qualify as a wild card. Winning the Pacific Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-18.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-22.46%
BELOW HURDLE