Pair #3769

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-HHAL

Will Harry Hall lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 233

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-HHAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Harry Hall finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4410

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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