Pair #375

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-TOR

Will Toronto Maple Leafs win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Toronto Maple Leafs
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3307

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-TOR

Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Toronto Maple Leafs
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 56652

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the Atlantic Division guarantees a playoff spot. However, making the playoffs does not imply winning the division — wild card teams qualify without winning their division.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:13:41Z

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