Pair #3744

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 291

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1965

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:02Z

Reasoning: A top 5 Round 1 position does not guarantee a top 20 finish in the tournament (a player could collapse over subsequent rounds), and a top 20 overall finish does not require having been top 5 after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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