Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-MGRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 291
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:02Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the tournament does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall. These are independent events across different scopes (full tournament vs. single round).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A