Pair #3742

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 291

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:04:02Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the tournament does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall. These are independent events across different scopes (full tournament vs. single round).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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