Pair #3740

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 291

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MGRE

Will Max Greyserman win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 402246

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Winning the Texas Children's Houston Open (overall tournament) does not necessitate finishing top 5 in Round 1 specifically — a player could win despite a modest R1 score. And finishing top 5 in R1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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