Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-MGRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 291
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MGRE
Will Max Greyserman win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 402246
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z
Reasoning: Winning the Texas Children's Houston Open (overall tournament) does not necessitate finishing top 5 in Round 1 specifically — a player could win despite a modest R1 score. And finishing top 5 in R1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A