Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MBRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2510
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MBRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9712
YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A