Pair #3737

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MBRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10523

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MBRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9712

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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