Pair #3734

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27210

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MBRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10523

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 is a different event from finishing top 10 overall. A player can lead R1 but fall outside the top 10 by tournament end, or finish top 10 without leading R1. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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