Pair #3730

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MBRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10523

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1076064

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters Tournament and finishing top 10 at the Texas Children's Houston Open are completely separate events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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