Pair #3729

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 20. Finishing top 20 does imply making the cut, but that direction has B as antecedent and A as consequent, which is the reverse of what's asked here. Neither direction as stated is a universal logical necessity given the framing.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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