Pair #3728

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not necessitate a top 5 finish. Top 5 finishing does imply making the cut, but A is make cut and B is top 5, so A does not imply B. The reverse (B→A) holds logically but the antecedent would be B, not A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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