Pair #3727

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7730

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does imply making the cut but the antecedent here would be top 10 implying make cut — in this pair A is make cut and B is top 10, so B→A holds but A does not imply B.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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