Pair #3726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 46041

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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