Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPEN
Will Marco Penge win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 779797
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Marco Penge wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517
YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z
Reasoning: Winning the Texas Children's Houston Open requires playing all rounds, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply winning.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A