Pair #3724

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1517

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and making the cut at the Houston Open are separate events with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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