Pair #3719

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RHOJ

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1580

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 10 in the Houston Open are separate events with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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