Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ARAI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 978
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ARAI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3395
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:03Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. Finishing top 20 does not guarantee finishing top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A