Pair #3712

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32999

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 978

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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