Pair #3711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 814

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32999

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can lead R1 and then play poorly in R2 and miss the cut. And making the cut does not require leading R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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