Pair #370

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-TOR

Will Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Toronto Maple Leafs
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 185312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-TOR

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Toronto Maple Leafs
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 35729

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Toronto Maple Leafs wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:08Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Toronto must have won the Eastern Conference Finals first. Winning the Stanley Cup necessarily implies winning the Eastern Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:43:37Z

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