Pair #37

Antecedent (implies)

KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA-26

Will Joao Fonseca win a major in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4124

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 12452

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:19Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam tournament, so winning it does not imply winning a major. Winning a major does not imply winning the Miami Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.58% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 290
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: -1.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:51:42Z

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