Pair #3699

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SSTE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9462

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SSTE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1777

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. Finishing top 10 does not guarantee finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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