Pair #3695

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SSTE

Will Sam Stevens lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SSTE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1777

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after R1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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