Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SSTE
Will Sam Stevens lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Stevens is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSTE
Will Sam Stevens win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1210445
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Stevens wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:29Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters and leading Round 1 at the Houston Open are entirely separate events with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9910
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A