Pair #3687

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4888

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8938

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be outside the top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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