Pair #3686

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4888

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 281

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means making the cut (you cannot finish top 10 without surviving the cut). However, making the cut does not imply a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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