Pair #3685

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5274

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4888

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish (a player could collapse over subsequent rounds), and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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