Pair #3683

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2694

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4888

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are separate events with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -63.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -67.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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