Pair #3680

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22616

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11337

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:11Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 5 finish (could fall back in rounds 3-4). Finishing top 5 does not require having led after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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