Pair #3678

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58679

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22616

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:11Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not mean a player will lead after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not require having led after Round 1. These are independent outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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