Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR
Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22616
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-SBUR
Will Sam Burns win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297533
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Burns wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:11Z
Reasoning: Winning the Texas Children's Houston Open does not require leading after Round 2 — a player can win from behind the halfway leader. Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A