Pair #3676

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22616

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:11Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Tour Major and leading Round 2 of the Texas Children's Houston Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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