Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-CGOT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 427
YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CGOT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 51797
YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.7300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:02:11Z
Reasoning: Event A is about Round 1 top 10, Event B is about the overall tournament top 20. A player can finish top 10 in Round 1 but miss the cut or finish outside top 20 overall. Conversely, a player can finish top 20 overall without being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A