Pair #3663

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 427

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Houston Open, which is not a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -79.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -83.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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