Pair #3652

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-TECHO26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 3 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16268

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top-20 finish (a catastrophic final round is possible). Finishing top 20 does not require having led after Round 3. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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