Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-TECHO26-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 3 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SLOW
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16268
YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:34Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top-20 finish (a catastrophic final round is possible). Finishing top 20 does not require having led after Round 3. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A