Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-TFIN
Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5715
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-TFIN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 55612
YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:14Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player could collapse in rounds 3-4), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A