Pair #3644

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5715

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 55612

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player could collapse in rounds 3-4), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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