Pair #3641

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5715

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4467

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: If Tony Finau leads after Round 2, he must have made the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2, and the leader necessarily makes the cut). However, making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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