Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-BGRI
Will Ben Griffin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3993
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ben Griffin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-BGRI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3859
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:55Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate finishing top 10 (a player can lead R1 and finish outside top 10). And finishing top 10 does not require leading after R1. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A