Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-CBJ
Will Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 612274
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-CBJ
Will Columbus Blue Jackets win the NHL Metropolitan Division?
Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 9730
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Metropolitan Division (wild card teams can win the Cup). Winning the division does not guarantee winning the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.40%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.62%
BELOW HURDLE